Trifecta wrote:Jaybird wrote:I will maintain that PM (along with, maybe, saves in baseball) is the most meaningless stat in sports, to my dying day. I'd even have it put on my tombstone, but it'd take up a lot of room.
I'm sort of there with you. But I think "Per 40" stats are even worse. I'm not an "anti-analytics" guy but some people place WAY too much faith in some of these metrics. Per 40 is dumb because it completely lacks the context of why a guy is playing more/fewer minutes than others, the time and score when they are in the game, who else is on the court for both teams, etc. Usually, there are good reasons why some guys play 30 minutes and other guys play 10. If Fred King averages 5 PPG in 11 minutes, don't try to extrapolate that and tell me he'd be scoring 18 a game if he played 40 minutes. Situations are everything.
Until MY dying day, I will never forget the ridiculous conversations we had here regarding Will Artino and his per-40. I knew what my eyes told me and no amount of statistical chicanery was going to justify my opinion on his play
In context per 40 is very valuable as it tells you what someone does with the time they get on the floor (really that availability is the biggest factor to how many stats someone puts up). So long as they aren't garbage minutes it just makes is an apples to apples comparison - bench guys extrapolate when they get more minutes. Groselle was a classic example as a guy who had injuries who limited his time, but he was pretty consistent across the board on a per minute basis from his Sophomore year to his Senior year. Heck, same with Kalkbrenner - per 40 scoring 17 - 17.7 - 19.7 - 21.8 over 4 years, rebounding 10.1, 10.4 - 7.6, 9.1 (addition of Baylor changed rebounding a bit and I think how we did defensive rotations meaning fewer boards for him the last 2 years)
To this day I don't really get the dislike so many had for Artino. He was a guy originally recruited to play in the MVC, but still became a valuable guy for our BE teams. By about every metric he was productive in his time on the floor. And in a lot of ways you can him as the evolution of the Pick and Roll game that Mac was putting together. While he couldn't shoot 3's like Wragge and wasn't a banger like Echenique, he had good feet and hands and finished at a high percentage even in the Big East - TS% of .669 and .555 in the BE, second on the team in rebounding as a senior (overall, non adjusted) and in a group of 5 guys averaging 3-4 boards a game as a Junior despite playing very few minutes
Anyway, so far as King goes, he's improved his stamina, but we have to remember that Kalk can play crazy minutes due to his conditioning and ability to play without fouling. There are very few 7 footers who can do that. He's improved quite a bit this year and is playing a few more minutes and being productive in those minutes.
and NOBODY says someone is extrapolating out to 40 minutes, just that a guy like King is going to be very productive for us with 20-30 minutes next year - i.e., it's a way of comparing useful bench (not garbage) to what someone might be doing as a starter