go_jays wrote:Minnesota Jay wrote:DC_JAY wrote:The Jays should handle Akron, but there are a couple red flags...
1) Akron is 10th nationally in 3-pt fg% defense. Opponents are only averaging 29% against them. They are going to guard the perimeter.
I noticed this also and, while I admit to not having watched them play this year, their other stats make this look like mostly luck/variance/lower skill opponents.
You can see that they're 167th in opponent 3pt rate, which means they aren't actually denying looks at any kind of impressive rate. They're also 43rd in FT percentage "defense" with opponents shooting FTs a couple percentage points below national average. They also don't defend the 2 pt shot particularly well, ranking in the bottom half of the country. So add it up - mediocre 2pt defense, not denying 3pt attempts, opponents shoot free throws poorly - and it seems its more likely Akron's opponents are just missing an inordinate number of 3s. Kenpom has written about how opponent 3% shooting percentage is only loosely predictive of future opponent 3% shooting (behind these other stats I've mentioned). Contrast all this with a team like Auburn, who allows a very similar 3pt fg% but denies 3pt attempts well, and despite opponents hitting FTs at a good clip
Now of course we could go 4-22 or whatever (knock on wood...) but I would not be particularly concerned about Akron's defense being the reason why
According to the Kenpom formula you gave me, Jays should be -12. If we lose to Akron, or even if it's close, we should just shut down the program and turn the Championship Center into Pickleball courts.
Percentages (and stats in general) are only valid when put into context. If a team is shooting 45% from 3, but only gets 3 or 4 attempts a game... is that awesome? I don't think so. That's why Turnovers and Rebounds are so important. If your on the plus side of those and get lots of attempts, and your opponent is on the negative side and gets way fewer attempts... well, you can see what I mean, right? Same with your analysis. You put it into context and it makes more sense.
Addendum: I thought I would dig into this TO/Rebound thing some more. So I looked at our game against Providence in the BET.
If you add up their Steals (7), Blocks (3) and our Turnovers (11), it comes to 21. If you add our Steals (3), Blocks (5) and their TOs (5) it comes to 13. So they got 8 more possessions than we did as a result. they also got 9 OBs to our 7. So add that up and they had 10 more possessions as a result than we did.
Here's the interesting part... They had 70 FG Attempts to our 58. Their FG percentage was 41%. 3 Pt percentage was 26%. Ours was 38% and 23%. So our shot percentages were almost identical. So the difference was... their percentages were on 10 more attempts. Same efficiency on more attempts = more points. TOs, Blocks, Steals and Rebounds matter... mostly TOs and Steals. At least in this game. And I'll bet they hold true for most games.