DC_JAY wrote:The Jays should handle Akron, but there are a couple red flags...
1) Akron is 10th nationally in 3-pt fg% defense. Opponents are only averaging 29% against them. They are going to guard the perimeter.
I noticed this also and, while I admit to not having watched them play this year, their other stats make this look like mostly luck/variance/lower skill opponents.
You can see that they're 167th in opponent 3pt rate, which means they aren't actually denying looks at any kind of impressive rate. They're also 43rd in FT percentage "defense" with opponents shooting FTs a couple percentage points below national average. They also don't defend the 2 pt shot particularly well, ranking in the bottom half of the country. So add it up - mediocre 2pt defense, not denying 3pt attempts, opponents shoot free throws poorly - and it seems its more likely Akron's opponents are just missing an inordinate number of 3s. Kenpom has written about how opponent 3% shooting percentage is only loosely predictive of future opponent 3% shooting (behind these other stats I've mentioned). Contrast all this with a team like Auburn, who allows a very similar 3pt fg% but denies 3pt attempts well, and despite opponents hitting FTs at a good clip
Now of course we could go 4-22 or whatever (knock on wood...) but I would not be particularly concerned about Akron's defense being the reason why