Akron Game Thread

[go_jays]

The only common opponent - UNLV, to whom Akron also lost, but by less than we did. They lost by 20 to Drake, I don’t think we would lose to Drake. I am bullish on this game. I am giving points, but hoping for it to get to 12 or below.

According to Kenpom Jays should be -12.

[go_jays]

The Jays should handle Akron, but there are a couple red flags...

1) Akron is 10th nationally in 3-pt fg% defense. Opponents are only averaging 29% against them. They are going to guard the perimeter.

I noticed this also and, while I admit to not having watched them play this year, their other stats make this look like mostly luck/variance/lower skill opponents.

You can see that they're 167th in opponent 3pt rate, which means they aren't actually denying looks at any kind of impressive rate. They're also 43rd in FT percentage "defense" with opponents shooting FTs a couple percentage points below national average. They also don't defend the 2 pt shot particularly well, ranking in the bottom half of the country. So add it up - mediocre 2pt defense, not denying 3pt attempts, opponents shoot free throws poorly - and it seems its more likely Akron's opponents are just missing an inordinate number of 3s. Kenpom has written about how opponent 3% shooting percentage is only loosely predictive of future opponent 3% shooting (behind these other stats I've mentioned). Contrast all this with a team like Auburn, who allows a very similar 3pt fg% but denies 3pt attempts well, and despite opponents hitting FTs at a good clip

Now of course we could go 4-22 or whatever (knock on wood...) but I would not be particularly concerned about Akron's defense being the reason why

According to the Kenpom formula you gave me, Jays should be -12. If we lose to Akron, or even if it's close, we should just shut down the program and turn the Championship Center into Pickleball courts.

Percentages (and stats in general) are only valid when put into context. If a team is shooting 45% from 3, but only gets 3 or 4 attempts a game... is that awesome? I don't think so. That's why Turnovers and Rebounds are so important. If your on the plus side of those and get lots of attempts, and your opponent is on the negative side and gets way fewer attempts... well, you can see what I mean, right? Same with your analysis. You put it into context and it makes more sense.

Last edited by go_jays on Sun Mar 17, 2024 8:05 pm, edited 2 times in total.

[taa71458]

Glad we have an early tip. Get the W and sit back and enjoy the rest of the first round games.

[DC_JAY]

The Jays should handle Akron, but there are a couple red flags...

1) Akron is 10th nationally in 3-pt fg% defense. Opponents are only averaging 29% against them. They are going to guard the perimeter.

I noticed this also and, while I admit to not having watched them play this year, their other stats make this look like mostly luck/variance/lower skill opponents.

You can see that they're 167th in opponent 3pt rate, which means they aren't actually denying looks at any kind of impressive rate. They're also 43rd in FT percentage "defense" with opponents shooting FTs a couple percentage points below national average. They also don't defend the 2 pt shot particularly well, ranking in the bottom half of the country. So add it up - mediocre 2pt defense, not denying 3pt attempts, opponents shoot free throws poorly - and it seems its more likely Akron's opponents are just missing an inordinate number of 3s. Kenpom has written about how opponent 3% shooting percentage is only loosely predictive of future opponent 3% shooting (behind these other stats I've mentioned). Contrast all this with a team like Auburn, who allows a very similar 3pt fg% but denies 3pt attempts well, and despite opponents hitting FTs at a good clip

Now of course we could go 4-22 or whatever (knock on wood...) but I would not be particularly concerned about Akron's defense being the reason why

Well explained/argued analysis. Thanks.

[CUGrads03]

Sack up, buckle up, and let’s go! This isn’t the Jays of the Mo Valley anymore. We’ve got the swagger to not play scared or intimidated, starting with our coach. Time for the real season to begin.

(Psyching myself up)

[HoopsFan01]

I just put my 401K on the Jays!

What is a Zip anyway? Not a chance we lose!!

[WBR Tom]

Full Primer to come later this week, but here's a first look at the Zips after some preliminary reading/watching. Good veteran team, certainly, and capable of pulling off an upset under the right circumstances (like, say, the Jays going 6-of-26 from three again). But there's a reason why their NET was 108 and their overall seed in the tourney is 56. They're inconsistent and prone to long scoring droughts. The potential for the Jays to bury them during one of those periods looms large.

https://whiteandbluereview.com/creighto ... ent-akron/

[jays34]

We're the better, more talented, more battle ready team. Go do our thing and it doesn't much matter what they do. Pound the rock down low, where Kalk will present serious matchup problems. If he gets doubled, make the extra pass and hit the open shots. First to 75 wins. Game planning done.

[go_jays]

The Jays should handle Akron, but there are a couple red flags...

1) Akron is 10th nationally in 3-pt fg% defense. Opponents are only averaging 29% against them. They are going to guard the perimeter.

I noticed this also and, while I admit to not having watched them play this year, their other stats make this look like mostly luck/variance/lower skill opponents.

You can see that they're 167th in opponent 3pt rate, which means they aren't actually denying looks at any kind of impressive rate. They're also 43rd in FT percentage "defense" with opponents shooting FTs a couple percentage points below national average. They also don't defend the 2 pt shot particularly well, ranking in the bottom half of the country. So add it up - mediocre 2pt defense, not denying 3pt attempts, opponents shoot free throws poorly - and it seems its more likely Akron's opponents are just missing an inordinate number of 3s. Kenpom has written about how opponent 3% shooting percentage is only loosely predictive of future opponent 3% shooting (behind these other stats I've mentioned). Contrast all this with a team like Auburn, who allows a very similar 3pt fg% but denies 3pt attempts well, and despite opponents hitting FTs at a good clip

Now of course we could go 4-22 or whatever (knock on wood...) but I would not be particularly concerned about Akron's defense being the reason why

According to the Kenpom formula you gave me, Jays should be -12. If we lose to Akron, or even if it's close, we should just shut down the program and turn the Championship Center into Pickleball courts.

Percentages (and stats in general) are only valid when put into context. If a team is shooting 45% from 3, but only gets 3 or 4 attempts a game... is that awesome? I don't think so. That's why Turnovers and Rebounds are so important. If your on the plus side of those and get lots of attempts, and your opponent is on the negative side and gets way fewer attempts... well, you can see what I mean, right? Same with your analysis. You put it into context and it makes more sense.

Addendum: I thought I would dig into this TO/Rebound thing some more. So I looked at our game against Providence in the BET.

If you add up their Steals (7), Blocks (3) and our Turnovers (11), it comes to 21. If you add our Steals (3), Blocks (5) and their TOs (5) it comes to 13. So they got 8 more possessions than we did as a result. they also got 9 OBs to our 7. So add that up and they had 10 more possessions as a result than we did.

Here's the interesting part... They had 70 FG Attempts to our 58. Their FG percentage was 41%. 3 Pt percentage was 26%. Ours was 38% and 23%. So our shot percentages were almost identical. So the difference was... their percentages were on 10 more attempts. Same efficiency on more attempts = more points. TOs, Blocks, Steals and Rebounds matter... mostly TOs and Steals. At least in this game. And I'll bet they hold true for most games.

[Jaybird]

The selection committee badly needs a liaison, somebody whose job is to follow the ticketing and local rooting interests at each site, and then keep the committee read in. Call him a Conflict Avoidance Advisor.

If they have somebody like that, they ignore him or her, because the dilemma they keep creating for Creighton staff and fans is ridiculous and unnecessary. It’s even worse because CHI routinely sells out for NCAA events, and many sites do not. I don’t think Pittsburgh has (could be wrong).

Those fans have a conflict too, because Duquesne tips less than an hour before the Pittsburgh games (in other words, us) start.

Just Amateur Hour stuff. More planning goes into grade school plays.