Providence Game Thread II

[Angry Dan]

Last night on the Twitter Fanta was applauding the decision by the officials to “let them play”. That may not be right but it’s a reality. Only super obvious calls are going to be made in this league. So we need to prepare for that.

We also need to clean up the turnovers and improve our passing. A good passing team can overcome physical defense. Just watch the last game between Iowa State and Oklahoma. The Cyclones play as physical as anyone. Oklahoma had great ball movement against them and won.

We also need to recognize that our margin of error is small. Even though we are high octane on offense we need to limit mistakes.

Letting teams play is a bit different then letting a crucial conference game go with one of the teams getting the fewest fouls called on them all year (when it was incredibly obvious that there were a ton of fouls going on). That sets up BE teams to be playing "referee roulette" in the tourney where if they get hit by a B12 or ACC set of referees and blow the game by getting called for 30 fouls


As for that Oklahoma/Iowa State game - Iowa State got called for 17 fouls. If Providence got called for 17 fouls in regulation, we win that game easily

So true about the foul calls. I had to laugh after one of our close wins this year, either Saint Johns or Seton Hall, I trolled the opposing message board and there were complaints about calls not being made and responding fans acknowledged that they didn’t want to see more foul calls because that would help Creighton, essentially admitting that their team needs to foul to have a shot at beating Creighton.

It’s so obvious. It’s also ridiculous!

[bluejayfan00]

Before the Butler game I would have favored the Jays to win every remaining game except UConn at home, and would have felt like we had a pretty solid shot in that one. I feared the worst at Providence after the Butler game.

Now I look at the schedule and I only feel even reasonably confident that we should "expect" to win the home game against Georgetown next week. I would think the Jays actually do win a number of the other games -- but just in isolation based on how things have looked these last couple of games, I can't imagine much confidence to EXPECT wins in any other specific individual games.

At X? Tough environment and a team that is, imo, better than Providence. Tough one to expect a win.
Georgetown -- God help this place if they blow that one.
At Butler? They beat us on our floor and Hinkle has never been a kind place for our shooters. Tough one to expect a win.
UConn? Buckle up.
At St. John's? In the Garden? Certainly won't be easy. Tough to expect a win.
Seton Hall? Remember that triple overtime battle? Don't really expect much less than a battle like that here, either.
Marquette? See UConn. And it's Senior Day, unfortunately.
At Nova? On their senior day? With the trouble we have dealing with Dixon? Tough one to expect a win.

Honestly won't be shocked if the Jays go 6-2 or go 1-7 or anything else at this point. Wednesday night in the BET is very much on the table right now, as is second or third place. For the NCAA, it feels like anywhere from 7-10 seed is very much on the table, as is possibly getting back into the 3-4 range.

I think teams have absolutely figured out how to deal with the drop coverage on defense, and are starting to exploit it. At some point you just can't keep trying to chalk the problems up to some kind of insane shooting -- teams know exactly what we're going to give them and they are executing to take advantage of it, as well-coached teams will do. And we are built to have no other real option.

Agree that we don't know what we're going to get at this point, but disagree on teams having figured out the drop coverage. Teams have had varied level of success this year, but I think we'll get better results in the next few games (although Xavier typically scores on us- even last year)

People need to remember the BE is a tough conference and even last year we went into the NCAA tourney having gone 4-4 in our last 8 conference games (including a 1-3 stretch with a loss to Providence that looked a bit like our loss last night). We also got blasted on defense by Nova on the road and Xavier in the BE Tourney (defensive ratings 125.4 and 115.5).. kinda feels like us versus Butler 130.3 and Providence 119.7

Bartorvik has us likely at 20-11 to end w/ 11-9 in conference after going 3-5 in the remaining 8 games, BUT Xavier is only favored by 1.2, Butler 0.5, Nova, 1.2. UConn favored by 2 in Omaa, and St. Johns by 3.3

Kenpom still has us at 18, Barttorvik at 20, Kenpom luck is 240th, which feels about right as we dropped a couple of really close ones. Whether or not losing close games is luck and/or skill and/or experience is up to God to decide, but typically those things even out a bit and we have a bunch of close ones ahead to hopefully get the balance back a bit

Sure. But we were #2 in the preseason BE poll. We were supposed to contend for the regular season title. We're 4-5 against teams who aren't DePaul or Georgetown. That's not good enough.

Outside of our top 4 players, the rest of the roster would struggle to see the floor anywhere else in the BE. And it doesn't help when your 7'1 center can't shut down his counterpart who is 4 inches and 30lbs smaller. We've wasted two really good shooting performances in a row, two really good games from Ashworth (and also Trey&Baylor) because we can't get stops. Not only is the security blanket we have on defense not erasing other bigs, we don't have individual defenders anywhere else on the perimeter.

[Chicagojayfan]

...


Sure. But we were #2 in the preseason BE poll. We were supposed to contend for the regular season title. We're 4-5 against teams who aren't DePaul or Georgetown. That's not good enough.

Outside of our top 4 players, the rest of the roster would struggle to see the floor anywhere else in the BE. And it doesn't help when your 7'1 center can't shut down his counterpart who is 4 inches and 30lbs smaller. We've wasted two really good shooting performances in a row, two really good games from Ashworth (and also Trey&Baylor) because we can't get stops. Not only is the security blanket we have on defense not erasing other bigs, we don't have individual defenders anywhere else on the perimeter.

But we were like that last year for much of the time as well:

- Kalk got ripped up by Dixon a couple of times last year, and by Walker last year - not every big guy can defend every other type of big guy. He did great against Oduro in the first game, but struggled last night - it happens. He's struggled with the quick guys before, and as I pointed out a 50% shooting percentage didn't hurt us as much as Carter did by going 5/8 from 3 PT range

- 2 really good shooting performances in a row? I give you Butler 4th best offensive game rating of the year, but last night was pretty average as it was the 9th worst -- so at best middle of the pack, but below par for what we can do

- last year we had some similar problems, Nova blew us up on the road, and then Xavier did something similar in the BE tourney - pretty much equal in poor defensive performances to last night. Did it indicate that we had a fundamental flaw with our defensive strategy or that people had figured out our drop coverage? Well, it didn't

I assume I could be wrong this year, but I doubt it. We'll see

[bluejayfan00]

...


Sure. But we were #2 in the preseason BE poll. We were supposed to contend for the regular season title. We're 4-5 against teams who aren't DePaul or Georgetown. That's not good enough.

Outside of our top 4 players, the rest of the roster would struggle to see the floor anywhere else in the BE. And it doesn't help when your 7'1 center can't shut down his counterpart who is 4 inches and 30lbs smaller. We've wasted two really good shooting performances in a row, two really good games from Ashworth (and also Trey&Baylor) because we can't get stops. Not only is the security blanket we have on defense not erasing other bigs, we don't have individual defenders anywhere else on the perimeter.

But we were like that last year for much of the time as well:

- Kalk got ripped up by Dixon a couple of times last year, and by Walker last year - not every big guy can defend every other type of big guy. He did great against Oduro in the first game, but struggled last night - it happens. He's struggled with the quick guys before, and as I pointed out a 50% shooting percentage didn't hurt us as much as Carter did by going 5/8 from 3 PT range

- 2 really good shooting performances in a row? I give you Butler 4th best offensive game rating of the year, but last night was pretty average as it was the 9th worst -- so at best middle of the pack, but below par for what we can do

- last year we had some similar problems, Nova blew us up on the road, and then Xavier did something similar in the BE tourney - pretty much equal in poor defensive performances to last night. Did it indicate that we had a fundamental flaw with our defensive strategy or that people had figured out our drop coverage? Well, it didn't

I assume I could be wrong this year, but I doubt it. We'll see

I'm sorry- what? In what universe is shooting 14-29 from 3 NOT a good shooting performance? And 51% overall? Far below par what can we do? What other games this year have we shot that well from 3? Like 2 or 3 others that were comparable, and against far lesser competition. It's certainly not "average", middle of the pack, or below par for what we can do. It's actually well above par from what we usually do. If you told someone before a game we are going to shoot that way, you'd assume we won and not by a close margin. Is there some meaningless super advanced analytic you use to spin shooting percentages? We are actually worse against Butler, from 3 at least. 9/25. But still, that's 36% which is around average for the year.

[Chicagojayfan]

...


Sure. But we were #2 in the preseason BE poll. We were supposed to contend for the regular season title. We're 4-5 against teams who aren't DePaul or Georgetown. That's not good enough.

Outside of our top 4 players, the rest of the roster would struggle to see the floor anywhere else in the BE. And it doesn't help when your 7'1 center can't shut down his counterpart who is 4 inches and 30lbs smaller. We've wasted two really good shooting performances in a row, two really good games from Ashworth (and also Trey&Baylor) because we can't get stops. Not only is the security blanket we have on defense not erasing other bigs, we don't have individual defenders anywhere else on the perimeter.

But we were like that last year for much of the time as well:

- Kalk got ripped up by Dixon a couple of times last year, and by Walker last year - not every big guy can defend every other type of big guy. He did great against Oduro in the first game, but struggled last night - it happens. He's struggled with the quick guys before, and as I pointed out a 50% shooting percentage didn't hurt us as much as Carter did by going 5/8 from 3 PT range

- 2 really good shooting performances in a row? I give you Butler 4th best offensive game rating of the year, but last night was pretty average as it was the 9th worst -- so at best middle of the pack, but below par for what we can do

- last year we had some similar problems, Nova blew us up on the road, and then Xavier did something similar in the BE tourney - pretty much equal in poor defensive performances to last night. Did it indicate that we had a fundamental flaw with our defensive strategy or that people had figured out our drop coverage? Well, it didn't

I assume I could be wrong this year, but I doubt it. We'll see

I'm sorry- what? In what universe is shooting 14-29 from 3 NOT a good shooting performance? And 51% overall? Far below par what can we do? What other games this year have we shot that well from 3? It's certainly not "average", middle of the pack, or below par for what we can do. It's actually well above par from what we usually do. If you told someone before a game we are going to shoot that way, you'd assume we won and not by a close margin. Is there some meaningless super advanced analytic you use to spin shooting percentages? We are actually worse against Butler, from 3 at least. 9/25. But still, that's 36% which is around average for the year.

At a high level sports-reference gives us a 114.5 offensive game score for last night's game, versus 128.9 against Butler. Why the difference when we shot so well from 3 vs. Providence?

We shot a LOT better overall against Butler - 54.8% vs 50.8% and while we hit those 3's @Providence, we missed 2 PT shots we hit against Butler and against other teams this year. Our Total Shooting% (taking into account both 3 and 2 pt shots was good) .632, but not as good as Butler .668, and then if you add in the turnovers on a lot of possessions (not even getting a shot, but having a possession), the offensive performance drops

Bottom line is we shot pretty well - Our Total Shooting% was 9th on the season versus Providence but hurt by the fact that we turned it over for empty possessions with no shots (even worse many of those became points for Providence)

some comparisons:
Butler vs. Providence:
2PT shots: 25/37 vs. 19/36 (really not that great for us last night)
at the rim: 18/25 vs. Butler, 8/14 last night

Those 11 additional shots at the rim vs. Butler were probably the biggest reason the offense wasn't as good as it was vs. Butler - not as many shots at the rim, and a much lower conversion on 2 pt shots, outweighing how much better we shot from 3

Add in the turnovers, and we have an OK offensive night but not great

[bluejayfan00]

So yes, meaningless advanced metrics to try and support your narrative

We shot well in both games, albeit in different ways. Two good offensive performances. Two losses. That was my point and it still stands.

[Chicagojayfan]

So yes, meaningless advanced metrics to try and support your narrative

We shot well in both games, albeit in different ways. Two good offensive performances. Two losses. That was my point and it still stands.

yeah, meaningless unless you think something like winning and losing is important

I get it -- math is hard. Believe whatever you want

[bluejayfan00]

So yes, meaningless advanced metrics to try and support your narrative

We shot well in both games, albeit in different ways. Two good offensive performances. Two losses. That was my point and it still stands.

yeah, meaningless unless you think something like winning and losing is important

I get it -- math is hard. Believe whatever you want

I mean, you tried to originally question my statement that we wasted two good shooting performances, stating we didn't shoot the ball well last night because of the offensive rating stats you provided. We shot 51% against Providence as a whole, and 48% from 3 with FOURTEEN makes. That's a good offensive performance.

I get it -- common sense is hard. Believe whatever you want.

[Chicagojayfan]

So yes, meaningless advanced metrics to try and support your narrative

We shot well in both games, albeit in different ways. Two good offensive performances. Two losses. That was my point and it still stands.

yeah, meaningless unless you think something like winning and losing is important

I get it -- math is hard. Believe whatever you want

I mean, you tried to originally question my statement that we wasted two good shooting performances, stating we didn't shoot the ball well last night because of the offensive rating stats you provided. We shot 51% against Providence as a whole, and 48% from 3 with FOURTEEN makes. That's a good offensive performance.

I get it -- common sense is hard. Believe whatever you want.

you said "We've wasted two really good shooting performances in a row"

I pointed out multiple reasons for showing that the shooting performance at Providence was closer to average (9th on our season in total shooting%, and offensively below average when accounting for wasted possessions due to turnovers). You didn't like the results

If you had said "good shooting performances" (as you've evidently edited it to be here) I would not have replied as I did

[bluejayfan00]

Ah ok, so our differences in this argument is because at first I said two "really good" shooting performances, and then later said "good" offensive performances and left out the really.

You got me.