by go_jays » Sun Jan 28, 2024 12:51 am
I've been watching Kenpom compared to the spread lately. I actually think they are establishing the opening line based on taking the difference in Adjusted Efficiency Margin between the 2 teams. Take that times .7 and add homecourt advantage to it.
For example (and these aren't exact because the AdjE is slightly different now that they've played the game), BUT, as of right now, Kenpom has each team...
Jays +21.17
DePaul -8.86
That equals 30.03
Take that times .7 = 21.02 The reason for that is that AdjE is based on per 100 possessions. When in fact, that average number of possessions is actually closer to 70 per game. That's the way it was explained to me by another poster last week or so when I was handicapping another game.
Add home court of 3.5 = 24.5
I think it was posted earlier that the Jays were -23?
Then they move the line according how the money goes down. They move it so that they get an equal amount of money on both sides.
They are NOT gamblers. They are only interested in the juice... 10%