Re: 2023-2024 season
Posted: Sat Mar 16, 2024 2:13 pmSaw the post on twitter by @wildjays about effective field goal % and how there really isn't the difference in games where our eFG% drops below .45 from last year as some might expect without R2 and AK. Got me curious about predictive metrics based purely and solely on our offensive production.
I believe my numbers are accurate.
This year:
When the Jays have an eFG% of less than .50 they are 1-6. The only win was SJU at home.
When the Jays have an efG% of more than .50 they are 22-3. The only losses are Marquette and Providence away / Butler at home.
When the Jays have a 3Pt% of less than .30 they are 2-6. The only wins are SJU at home and X away.
When the Jays have a 3Pt% of more than .30 they are 21-3. The only losses Marquette and Providence away / Butler at home.
When the Jays hit less than 10 three pointers they are 6-7.
When the Jays hit more than 10 three pointers they are 17-2. The only losses are Marquette and Providence away.
Especially when you get to the tournament sometimes season-long statistsical trends get thrown out the window a bit. But those are some pretty clear trends to me that are a difference between winning and losing.
The Jays have an 88% chance of winning whenever they can get to an eFG% of .50, a 3PT% of .30, or a total of at least 10 made threes. If you consider the home game against Butler as a massive aberration for every statistical view of basketball because of Butler's totally uncharacteristic shooting percentage, those numbers become even more dramatic with only Marquette and Providence on the road (in two places with about as ridiculous of home winning percentage as you can find) being exceptions and preventing those numbers from being 100 percent winning percentage.
232 teams are averaging better than .50 for eFG% on the season, so that doesn't translate to some eye-popping number to hit that results in an "of course you win when you do that" or anything. Wildjays noted in his tweet that the average D1 offense is at 50.5 for eFG%. So basically, be average there and we win Be less than average and we win. (And same with 3Pt% -- .30 is not an eye-popping percentage to make or anything, but it's a pretty good watermark for this team -- we haven't attempted fewer than 20 since the Bama game, and only did so in that one and at Oklahoma State, so we Let It Fly but we only really need to translate that to at least an average make percentage to be successful).
So that's what I'm watching for in the NCAAT games -- can we hit at least .30 from three and/or get to at least .50 for eFG% and/or make at least 10 threes? Any of those seems almost guaranteed to be a win.
I believe my numbers are accurate.
This year:
When the Jays have an eFG% of less than .50 they are 1-6. The only win was SJU at home.
When the Jays have an efG% of more than .50 they are 22-3. The only losses are Marquette and Providence away / Butler at home.
When the Jays have a 3Pt% of less than .30 they are 2-6. The only wins are SJU at home and X away.
When the Jays have a 3Pt% of more than .30 they are 21-3. The only losses Marquette and Providence away / Butler at home.
When the Jays hit less than 10 three pointers they are 6-7.
When the Jays hit more than 10 three pointers they are 17-2. The only losses are Marquette and Providence away.
Especially when you get to the tournament sometimes season-long statistsical trends get thrown out the window a bit. But those are some pretty clear trends to me that are a difference between winning and losing.
The Jays have an 88% chance of winning whenever they can get to an eFG% of .50, a 3PT% of .30, or a total of at least 10 made threes. If you consider the home game against Butler as a massive aberration for every statistical view of basketball because of Butler's totally uncharacteristic shooting percentage, those numbers become even more dramatic with only Marquette and Providence on the road (in two places with about as ridiculous of home winning percentage as you can find) being exceptions and preventing those numbers from being 100 percent winning percentage.
232 teams are averaging better than .50 for eFG% on the season, so that doesn't translate to some eye-popping number to hit that results in an "of course you win when you do that" or anything. Wildjays noted in his tweet that the average D1 offense is at 50.5 for eFG%. So basically, be average there and we win Be less than average and we win. (And same with 3Pt% -- .30 is not an eye-popping percentage to make or anything, but it's a pretty good watermark for this team -- we haven't attempted fewer than 20 since the Bama game, and only did so in that one and at Oklahoma State, so we Let It Fly but we only really need to translate that to at least an average make percentage to be successful).
So that's what I'm watching for in the NCAAT games -- can we hit at least .30 from three and/or get to at least .50 for eFG% and/or make at least 10 threes? Any of those seems almost guaranteed to be a win.