2023-2024 season

[JayPak]

Creighton's got a good chance at the 2 with a win or two in NY coupled with an early conference tourney exit by Marquette and/or Iowa St.
Important to get at least a 3-seed for the NCAAT and avoid potentially dangerous spoilers like Samford, McNeese, and Vermont, who are going to be on the 13 line.

[SeattleJay]

In Mac’s most recent press conference he said something to the effect that you probably have to vote for the best player on the best team for POY. He also added that Baylor had a great year and deserved some consideration.

[jaykorver]

[go_jays]

Creighton's got a good chance at the 2 with a win or two in NY coupled with an early conference tourney exit by Marquette and/or Iowa St.
Important to get at least a 3-seed for the NCAAT and avoid potentially dangerous spoilers like Samford, McNeese, and Vermont, who are going to be on the 13 line.

Right on...You OD NOT want to be playing a 12 or 13 seed. Many of those teams are teams (In the 12 seed and a couple in the 13 seed anyway) that aren't auto-qualifiers from the bottom-feeder conferences and are around #45 to #60 range... similar to Seton Hall, Providence, Xavier, Nova. They are the dangerous ones.

[vivid_dude]

Lunardi has Creighton as a 2-seed before MSG. He’s been right at least a few times to make this mean something, hasn’t he?

Big East with a 1-seed and two 2-seeds. I don’t miss Sundecker's (RIP), THAT much.

[DC_JAY]

Looking at the teams in line for top seeds, I wonder if Creighton will get any credit in the eyes of the Committee for challenging itself on the road this season.

Here are the total road games played by top NET teams:

Houston - 10
Purdue - 10
UConn - 11
Zona - 11
Tennessee - 11
Auburn - 10 (how the hell are they so high in the Net with just one Quad 1 win?)
UNC - 10
Alabama - 10
Iowa State - 10
Duke - 11
Creighton - 13
BYU - 10

No team has more true road wins than the Jays (UConn and Tennessee also have 8). Another impressive facet of Creighton's overall resume.

[JaysLifer]

Creighton's got a good chance at the 2 with a win or two in NY coupled with an early conference tourney exit by Marquette and/or Iowa St.
Important to get at least a 3-seed for the NCAAT and avoid potentially dangerous spoilers like Samford, McNeese, and Vermont, who are going to be on the 13 line.

Right on...You OD NOT want to be playing a 12 or 13 seed. Many of those teams are teams (In the 12 seed and a couple in the 13 seed anyway) that aren't auto-qualifiers from the bottom-feeder conferences and are around #45 to #60 range... similar to Seton Hall, Providence, Xavier, Nova. They are the dangerous ones.

I know 12-seeds tend to be the upset darlings, but they still only win about 35% of the 5-12 matchups and they only have a .336 overall win percentage in the NCAA tourney. That's probably all moot anyway because it seems inconceivable that the Jays drop to the 5 line at this point. Still, I'm not sure I can agree that you don't want to be playing a 13 -- 13-seeds have only won 32 first-round games since the tourney expanded, which is only a little better than the 22 first-round games that 14-seeds have won.

[DC_JAY]

Creighton's got a good chance at the 2 with a win or two in NY coupled with an early conference tourney exit by Marquette and/or Iowa St.
Important to get at least a 3-seed for the NCAAT and avoid potentially dangerous spoilers like Samford, McNeese, and Vermont, who are going to be on the 13 line.

Right on...You OD NOT want to be playing a 12 or 13 seed. Many of those teams are teams (In the 12 seed and a couple in the 13 seed anyway) that aren't auto-qualifiers from the bottom-feeder conferences and are around #45 to #60 range... similar to Seton Hall, Providence, Xavier, Nova. They are the dangerous ones.

I know 12-seeds tend to be the upset darlings, but they still only win about 35% of the 5-12 matchups and they only have a .336 overall win percentage in the NCAA tourney. That's probably all moot anyway because it seems inconceivable that the Jays drop to the 5 line at this point. Still, I'm not sure I can agree that you don't want to be playing a 13 -- 13-seeds have only won 32 first-round games since the tourney expanded, which is only a little better than the 22 first-round games that 14-seeds have won.

This page has a nice breakdown of advancement odds by seed: https://bracketodds.cs.illinois.edu/seedadv.html

Fun to look at. Setting aside 1 and 2 seeds, the biggest cutoff is between 4s and 5s in terms of making the Sweet Sixteen.

[HandDownManDown]

It matters who those seeds are.

If teams like Longwood keep knocking out the High Points, it’s going to shove would-be 16 seeds upwards. If enough of them do that there will be 15 seeds that are just terrible.

Really what happened with Huss losing is one team that could possibly win a game was replaced with one that can’t, at least not a non-First 4 game.

I’m down with that scenario and am actually paying attention to who wins these games whereas normally I wouldn’t care.

[jayc13]

This page has a nice breakdown of advancement odds by seed: https://bracketodds.cs.illinois.edu/seedadv.html

Fun to look at. Setting aside 1 and 2 seeds, the biggest cutoff is between 4s and 5s in terms of making the Sweet Sixteen.[/quote]

Nice, thanks! So, uconn was only the 2nd 4 seed to win the NC and SDSU would've been the 1st 5 seed to win it all. Interesting. Sign of the times or an anomaly?

Last edited by jayc13 on Tue Mar 12, 2024 5:16 pm, edited 2 times in total.