Louisville Game Thread

[Tdjay114]

Two things stand out to me. In the ACC, the top three teams got their lofty records by beating up on the rest of what appears to have been a pretty average ACC. Louisville was 7-4 in non-conference, They got drubbed by TN and Ole Miss, and also lost to Oklahoma and Kentucky. NET aside, their season of work really isn't much if any better than ours, sans our loss to Nebraska.

I don't know how their big guys will match up defending Kalkbrenner, but on the other end of the court, they aren't going to pull Kalkbrenner out of the lane much. Scott is 1 for 6 from 3. Waterman has shot 3+ per game more, but is 29% from 3. Unless he becomes the latest in the string of sub .30% 3pt shooter to go 6-8 against us, Kalkbrenner doesn't have to chase him out to the three. In fact, Waterman shoots 37% overall Bonus, both Scott and Waterman are sub 45% free throw shooters. I suspect Mac will let him shoot outside of 5-10 feet.

This one likely boils down to rebounding, turnovers and us shooting at or above our season average. They have a TO margin of 1.5, giving up 11.4 to their opponents 12.9. If we keep the turnover margin within one or two, win the rebounding battle, and shoot our averages, then I like our chances. But, I think any one of giving up 15+ TOs, giving up 15+ offensive boards, or shooting less then 35% from 3 and 50% overall (meaning Kalk is under about 60-65%) (and of course hitting 3-9 free throws) will doom us.

Great post. Solid analysis.

[jays34]

This was fun, for those of us that were around back then.....some key free throws from Doug! (the original Doug). and boy, do i miss sears and walker. what a duo!

https://youtu.be/4DeZ6wq3JeU?feature=shared

[CUGrads03]

Most years we get a resident fan of the other team we play to say hello and give us their thoughts on their team. Wonder if we’ll see it this time.

[RyanHolmgren]

This was fun, for those of us that were around back then.....some key free throws from Doug! (the original Doug). and boy, do i miss sears and walker. what a duo!

https://youtu.be/4DeZ6wq3JeU?feature=shared

Last time we played Louisville in the tourney, Auburn was also a 1 seed. Good omen for the first round?

More importantly, we need to bring back those shooting shirt warmup outfits. Guess that qualifies as throwback these days!

[LJay]

[SDJay]

Two things stand out to me. In the ACC, the top three teams got their lofty records by beating up on the rest of what appears to have been a pretty average ACC. Louisville was 7-4 in non-conference, They got drubbed by TN and Ole Miss, and also lost to Oklahoma and Kentucky. NET aside, their season of work really isn't much if any better than ours, sans our loss to Nebraska.

I don't know how their big guys will match up defending Kalkbrenner, but on the other end of the court, they aren't going to pull Kalkbrenner out of the lane much. Scott is 1 for 6 from 3. Waterman has shot 3+ per game more, but is 29% from 3. Unless he becomes the latest in the string of sub .30% 3pt shooter to go 6-8 against us, Kalkbrenner doesn't have to chase him out to the three. In fact, Waterman shoots 37% overall Bonus, both Scott and Waterman are sub 45% free throw shooters. I suspect Mac will let him shoot outside of 5-10 feet.

This one likely boils down to rebounding, turnovers and us shooting at or above our season average. They have a TO margin of 1.5, giving up 11.4 to their opponents 12.9. If we keep the turnover margin within one or two, win the rebounding battle, and shoot our averages, then I like our chances. But, I think any one of giving up 15+ TOs, giving up 15+ offensive boards, or shooting less then 35% from 3 and 50% overall (meaning Kalk is under about 60-65%) (and of course hitting 3-9 free throws) will doom us.

Otherwise, Mac will have to bring out the "he's not Steph Curry" line if Kalk tries to chase him off the 3 pt line

[Chicagojayfan]

Two things stand out to me. In the ACC, the top three teams got their lofty records by beating up on the rest of what appears to have been a pretty average ACC. Louisville was 7-4 in non-conference, They got drubbed by TN and Ole Miss, and also lost to Oklahoma and Kentucky. NET aside, their season of work really isn't much if any better than ours, sans our loss to Nebraska.

I don't know how their big guys will match up defending Kalkbrenner, but on the other end of the court, they aren't going to pull Kalkbrenner out of the lane much. Scott is 1 for 6 from 3. Waterman has shot 3+ per game more, but is 29% from 3. Unless he becomes the latest in the string of sub .30% 3pt shooter to go 6-8 against us, Kalkbrenner doesn't have to chase him out to the three. In fact, Waterman shoots 37% overall Bonus, both Scott and Waterman are sub 45% free throw shooters. I suspect Mac will let him shoot outside of 5-10 feet.

This one likely boils down to rebounding, turnovers and us shooting at or above our season average. They have a TO margin of 1.5, giving up 11.4 to their opponents 12.9. If we keep the turnover margin within one or two, win the rebounding battle, and shoot our averages, then I like our chances. But, I think any one of giving up 15+ TOs, giving up 15+ offensive boards, or shooting less then 35% from 3 and 50% overall (meaning Kalk is under about 60-65%) (and of course hitting 3-9 free throws) will doom us.

Otherwise, Mac will have to bring out the "he's not Seth Curry" line if Kalk tries to chase him off the 3 pt line

as psychojaysfan3 pointed out, he's shot better from 3 in the past and has had a few good shooting games this year. They generally seem to struggle to put 5 3-pt shooters on the floor at the same time, so we may be able to adjust our D to their lineup and manage to keep Kalk in the drop coverage

[WBR Tom]

Kalk wore a pair of 1998-99 uniform shorts at the team sendoff today -- you know, the ones from the team who beat Louisville in the tournament. They're authentic, too, right down to the memorial DOC patch on the right leg. I wonder who's they were -- Al Huss or Doug Swenson? Maybe Nerijus? Gotta be Swenson since he wore #11 too.

Such a boss move to break those out for the trip. Fantastic. If he shows up at shootaround tomorrow wearing one of the old warmup shirts with the giant orange JAYS logo on the back, I don't even know what to say. Those things have magic in 'em.

[cu8493]

If they were Swenson's I hope they got the stain washed of the rear (it was Swenson, wasn't it?)

[SeattleJay]

I thought this was a pretty good analysis of our team and this game from a Louisville perspective:

https://www.cardchronicle.com/2025/3/19 ... n-bluejays

I suspected but didn’t know that we are the 7th tallest team in the country.