Villanova Game Thread II

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Re: Villanova Game Thread II

Postby Chicagojayfan » Sun Feb 02, 2025 10:21 am

Minnesota Jay wrote:
Chicagojayfan wrote:
Rebounds: 4th best rebounding games of the year - total rebound percentage of 60.8%. We are 14-1 when we are over 50% / 2-5 when under 50%. Especially given how we don't get turnovers on the defensive end, this is a key for us to get enough possessions to keep shooting and to win



Won't argue the importance of rebounding, but looking at total rebounds like this instead of respective offensive and defensive rebounding rates is mostly a backwards-looking statistic. The majority of missed shots are rebounded by the defense - ie. you're more likely to cede more total rebounds because you're losing (missing shots) than you are to lose because you cede more total rebounds. We're 14-1 when we have more total rebounds because we don't shoot 20% from 3 in those games.

To that end - We are 10-2 when we have the superior rebounding rate, vs. 6-4 when we do not.


It's a good point that it's highly dependent on misses and that looking at both is a better analysis overall, but in a slugfest like this both teams are tossing up a ton of misses and it's an important factor. To add to how good of a job we did on the boards yesterday that 60.8% rebound percentage includes the fact that Nova got ZERO Offensive rebounds yesterday. They missed 25 shots yesterday so it wasn't like there weren't a lot of offensive rebounding opportunities, so not only did we play great D, we cleaned up the boards when they missed.. and beyond that, we hit the boards on offense as well and dominated the rebounding
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Re: Villanova Game Thread II

Postby section221jay » Sun Feb 02, 2025 10:48 am

Minnesota Jay wrote:
Chicagojayfan wrote:
Rebounds: 4th best rebounding games of the year - total rebound percentage of 60.8%. We are 14-1 when we are over 50% / 2-5 when under 50%. Especially given how we don't get turnovers on the defensive end, this is a key for us to get enough possessions to keep shooting and to win



Won't argue the importance of rebounding, but looking at total rebounds like this instead of respective offensive and defensive rebounding rates is mostly a backwards-looking statistic. The majority of missed shots are rebounded by the defense - ie. you're more likely to cede more total rebounds because you're losing (missing shots) than you are to lose because you cede more total rebounds. We're 14-1 when we have more total rebounds because we don't shoot 20% from 3 in those games.

To that end - We are 10-2 when we have the superior rebounding rate, vs. 6-4 when we do not.


Thank you for posting this. The total rebounds stat has always bugged me.
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Re: Villanova Game Thread II

Postby SDJay » Sun Feb 02, 2025 11:13 am

Zero offensive boards for Nova is pretty impressive.
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Re: Villanova Game Thread II

Postby taa71458 » Sun Feb 02, 2025 11:42 am

SDJay wrote:Zero offensive boards for Nova is pretty impressive.

Part of their plan was to clearly get back and not let us get points in transition but still a handful of times we went up and got some strong defensive rebounds.
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Re: Villanova Game Thread II

Postby Chicagojayfan » Sun Feb 02, 2025 12:01 pm

taa71458 wrote:
SDJay wrote:Zero offensive boards for Nova is pretty impressive.

Part of their plan was to clearly get back and not let us get points in transition but still a handful of times we went up and got some strong defensive rebounds.


I couldn't remember the last time I saw us do that (if ever) so went back a few years and, at least since 2019-20, we haven't held anyone to 0 offensive boards

We did hold Nova to 1 offensive rebound last year as well -- so likely a bit of a good matchup and their strategy coming together with our really good execution
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Re: Villanova Game Thread II

Postby SonofFrankTomera » Sun Feb 02, 2025 4:14 pm

gtmoBlue wrote:Hmmm. ESPN/data skrive listed the game at Finneran. My mistake. So we’re still 0fer there. Thanks.


I noticed that as well last night Gitmo.
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Re: Villanova Game Thread II

Postby SeattleJay » Sun Feb 02, 2025 4:23 pm

The final scoring inbounds play for Creighton: as you face the basket, Green is just at the left edge of the backboard. We have 4 players set up in a box. Kalk is on the elbow on the strong side and Ash on the weak side elbow. Traudt is on the weak side post. Neal is on the strong side post. Neal immediately cuts to the corner and then up toward the top of the key. Traudt fades to the opposite corner. This basically clears the middle. Kalk comes straight down toward Green getting deep toward the basket. Ash cuts diagonally toward Kalk. Kalk reverse spins with a step or two. Ash briefly picks Dixon. Longino who was guarding Ash is forced to stay home to help on Kalk’s spin move. Kalk cuts off Longino as Ash releases and heads to the corner where he is wide open. The Nova center who was guarding the CU inbound passer, Green, realizes that Ash is wide open and hustles to the corner to guard Ash, but it’s too late.

Great play!
Last edited by SeattleJay on Sun Feb 02, 2025 6:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Villanova Game Thread II

Postby TrueBlueJay » Sun Feb 02, 2025 5:21 pm

Actually, the final inbounds play for CU yesterday was on the Nova baseline and was giving me PTSD flashbacks to Marquette a few years ago.
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Re: Villanova Game Thread II

Postby SeattleJay » Sun Feb 02, 2025 6:26 pm

TrueBlueJay wrote:Actually, the final inbounds play for CU yesterday was on the Nova baseline and was giving me PTSD flashbacks to Marquette a few years ago.

You got me -with .6 left

It was also giving me a flashback to the Marquette game about 5 years ago when we threw it deep and no one touched it. Then Hauser hit the 3 to tie it. This ending almost equals out that horrible ending.
Last edited by SeattleJay on Sun Feb 02, 2025 6:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Villanova Game Thread II

Postby SeattleJay » Sun Feb 02, 2025 6:30 pm

In case anyone missed it, the Green timeout was legit. They changed the rule back apparently in mid 2023. It was really smart for Green to remember that.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-baske ... eason/amp/

The Villanova board was rife with comments about it being the wrong call.
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