Louisville Game Thread

[cu8493]

Two things stand out to me. In the ACC, the top three teams got their lofty records by beating up on the rest of what appears to have been a pretty average ACC. Louisville was 7-4 in non-conference, They got drubbed by TN and Ole Miss, and also lost to Oklahoma and Kentucky. NET aside, their season of work really isn't much if any better than ours, sans our loss to Nebraska.

I don't know how their big guys will match up defending Kalkbrenner, but on the other end of the court, they aren't going to pull Kalkbrenner out of the lane much. Scott is 1 for 6 from 3. Waterman has shot 3+ per game more, but is 29% from 3. Unless he becomes the latest in the string of sub .30% 3pt shooter to go 6-8 against us, Kalkbrenner doesn't have to chase him out to the three. In fact, Waterman shoots 37% overall Bonus, both Scott and Waterman are sub 45% free throw shooters. I suspect Mac will let him shoot outside of 5-10 feet.

This one likely boils down to rebounding, turnovers and us shooting at or above our season average. They have a TO margin of 1.5, giving up 11.4 to their opponents 12.9. If we keep the turnover margin within one or two, win the rebounding battle, and shoot our averages, then I like our chances. But, I think any one of giving up 15+ TOs, giving up 15+ offensive boards, or shooting less then 35% from 3 and 50% overall (meaning Kalk is under about 60-65%) (and of course hitting 3-9 free throws) will doom us.

[Chicagojayfan]

A few quick thoughts:

1. We will have the advantage in the paint with nobody on their side able to match up easily with Kalkbrenner
2. Like us, they take a pretty high number of 3 PT shots, and like us they sometimes don't shoot well enough to justify taking that many 3's, but they like/need the spacing and they've shown they can win games even when shooting under 30% from 3 PT as they seem to have guys who can play a bit of ISO and get to the paint as well with that spacing

Outside of us facing a 6/7 seed type team to start as the 9th seed, I like the matchup. We aren't playing back to back games, and Kalk will have a favorable matchup in the paint (and should for much of the tourney for that matter), and

Both teams got screwed by the committee, IMO, and this is a high risk game for Creighton, but this seeding is also a great opportunity for us to make a deep run. This isn't playing SJU in New York with a whistle that's friendly to their game

Are you sure about this? I admit, I haven't watched a ton of Louisville this year and when I did I was mainly watching Chucky. But the WBR link above literally talks about how they play two 6'11 guys. Their height doesn't equate to their quality, but that sounds like they can throw bodies at Kalk like UConn or St. John's.

Maybe not a popular viewpoint, but while both are tall, neither bring a lot of bulk:

Scott 6-11, 210 (23.9 mpg);
Worst games were W. Virginia, B College, FL State, GA Tech

Waterman 6-11, 210 (20.3 mpg);
Waterman played against us back in 2022 when Kalk was out and hit 2/3 versus King,
When playing much, worst games this year were W. Virginia, Pitt, Syracuse, Duke, NC State

In both cases, they had more trouble against teams with bigger post players who can be more physical (e.g., WVU w/ 6-8, 240 and 6-11, 228; Boston college 6-10, 280, Pitt not so much, but 6-10, 225 on their front line, NC State 2 guys over 6-10/225)

They look like fine players, but they haven't played anyone nearly like Kalkbrenner all year and struggled against some of the bigger guys they've seen. Waterman does take some 3 PT shots, but we might have options on how to defend him with the other outside shooters they have on the roster.

Anyway, I'll take Kalkbrenner in that matchup 10 out of 10 times

[psychojaysfan3]

Two things stand out to me. In the ACC, the top three teams got their lofty records by beating up on the rest of what appears to have been a pretty average ACC. Louisville was 7-4 in non-conference, They got drubbed by TN and Ole Miss, and also lost to Oklahoma and Kentucky. NET aside, their season of work really isn't much if any better than ours, sans our loss to Nebraska.

I don't know how their big guys will match up defending Kalkbrenner, but on the other end of the court, they aren't going to pull Kalkbrenner out of the lane much. Scott is 1 for 6 from 3. Waterman has shot 3+ per game more, but is 29% from 3. Unless he becomes the latest in the string of sub .30% 3pt shooter to go 6-8 against us, Kalkbrenner doesn't have to chase him out to the three. In fact, Waterman shoots 37% overall Bonus, both Scott and Waterman are sub 45% free throw shooters. I suspect Mac will let him shoot outside of 5-10 feet.

This one likely boils down to rebounding, turnovers and us shooting at or above our season average. They have a TO margin of 1.5, giving up 11.4 to their opponents 12.9. If we keep the turnover margin within one or two, win the rebounding battle, and shoot our averages, then I like our chances. But, I think any one of giving up 15+ TOs, giving up 15+ offensive boards, or shooting less then 35% from 3 and 50% overall (meaning Kalk is under about 60-65%) (and of course hitting 3-9 free throws) will doom us.

Waterman is a better shooter than his numbers indicate. Shot 37% from 3 last season at BYU on nearly 5 attempts per game. He's streaky, but finished this season shooting 9/20 from 3 over their last 5 games. He is a more than capable shooter.

His ability to pull Kalk out of the paint is my biggest concern. We can't guard Hepburn and Edwards 1v1 so wouldn't be surprised to see Mac camp Kalk in the paint and pray that Waterman is having an off night. Would rather let Waterman chuck 3s than given Hepburn/Edwards open lanes in the paint.

Outside of Edwards and Hepburn, the rest of their roster gives me little concern. Similar to us, they are not a deep team and rely heavily on 2 guys to win them games.

Our ability to win this game is going to come down to one player....Steven Ashworth.

Louisville is a poor 3 point shooting defense. They give up a lot of open looks. Ashworth and our other shooters have to find the bottom of the net. This is a game where Ashworth will have the chance to shoot 10 threes.

He needs to make them.

[Chicagojayfan]

Two things stand out to me. In the ACC, the top three teams got their lofty records by beating up on the rest of what appears to have been a pretty average ACC. Louisville was 7-4 in non-conference, They got drubbed by TN and Ole Miss, and also lost to Oklahoma and Kentucky. NET aside, their season of work really isn't much if any better than ours, sans our loss to Nebraska.

I don't know how their big guys will match up defending Kalkbrenner, but on the other end of the court, they aren't going to pull Kalkbrenner out of the lane much. Scott is 1 for 6 from 3. Waterman has shot 3+ per game more, but is 29% from 3. Unless he becomes the latest in the string of sub .30% 3pt shooter to go 6-8 against us, Kalkbrenner doesn't have to chase him out to the three. In fact, Waterman shoots 37% overall Bonus, both Scott and Waterman are sub 45% free throw shooters. I suspect Mac will let him shoot outside of 5-10 feet.

This one likely boils down to rebounding, turnovers and us shooting at or above our season average. They have a TO margin of 1.5, giving up 11.4 to their opponents 12.9. If we keep the turnover margin within one or two, win the rebounding battle, and shoot our averages, then I like our chances. But, I think any one of giving up 15+ TOs, giving up 15+ offensive boards, or shooting less then 35% from 3 and 50% overall (meaning Kalk is under about 60-65%) (and of course hitting 3-9 free throws) will doom us.

Waterman is a better shooter than his numbers indicate. Shot 37% from 3 last season at BYU on nearly 5 attempts per game. He's streaky, but finished this season shooting 9/20 from 3 over their last 5 games. He is a more than capable shooter.

His ability to pull Kalk out of the paint is my biggest concern. We can't guard Hepburn and Edwards 1v1 so wouldn't be surprised to see Mac camp Kalk in the paint and pray that Waterman is having an off night. Would rather let Waterman chuck 3s than given Hepburn/Edwards open lanes in the paint.

Outside of Edwards and Hepburn, the rest of their roster gives me little concern. Similar to us, they are not a deep team and rely heavily on 2 guys to win them games.

Our ability to win this game is going to come down to one player....Steven Ashworth.

Louisville is a poor 3 point shooting defense. They give up a lot of open looks. Ashworth and our other shooters have to find the bottom of the net. This is a game where Ashworth will have the chance to shoot 10 threes.

He needs to make them.

Agree about Waterman shooting the 3 -- he had some good games this year, but streaky like you said. I kind of hinted at this in my comment, but with Waterman we might be able to do something similar to what we did with Dixon where Green covered him. They like to shoot the 3, but don't look like they put 5 guys on the floor at a time who can consistently shoot it either

I like the odds of Ashworth shooting well in the tourney - no back to back games helps him, I think. But a terrible 3 PT shooting game always has a good chance for us to lose

[psychojaysfan3]

Two things stand out to me. In the ACC, the top three teams got their lofty records by beating up on the rest of what appears to have been a pretty average ACC. Louisville was 7-4 in non-conference, They got drubbed by TN and Ole Miss, and also lost to Oklahoma and Kentucky. NET aside, their season of work really isn't much if any better than ours, sans our loss to Nebraska.

I don't know how their big guys will match up defending Kalkbrenner, but on the other end of the court, they aren't going to pull Kalkbrenner out of the lane much. Scott is 1 for 6 from 3. Waterman has shot 3+ per game more, but is 29% from 3. Unless he becomes the latest in the string of sub .30% 3pt shooter to go 6-8 against us, Kalkbrenner doesn't have to chase him out to the three. In fact, Waterman shoots 37% overall Bonus, both Scott and Waterman are sub 45% free throw shooters. I suspect Mac will let him shoot outside of 5-10 feet.

This one likely boils down to rebounding, turnovers and us shooting at or above our season average. They have a TO margin of 1.5, giving up 11.4 to their opponents 12.9. If we keep the turnover margin within one or two, win the rebounding battle, and shoot our averages, then I like our chances. But, I think any one of giving up 15+ TOs, giving up 15+ offensive boards, or shooting less then 35% from 3 and 50% overall (meaning Kalk is under about 60-65%) (and of course hitting 3-9 free throws) will doom us.

Waterman is a better shooter than his numbers indicate. Shot 37% from 3 last season at BYU on nearly 5 attempts per game. He's streaky, but finished this season shooting 9/20 from 3 over their last 5 games. He is a more than capable shooter.

His ability to pull Kalk out of the paint is my biggest concern. We can't guard Hepburn and Edwards 1v1 so wouldn't be surprised to see Mac camp Kalk in the paint and pray that Waterman is having an off night. Would rather let Waterman chuck 3s than given Hepburn/Edwards open lanes in the paint.

Outside of Edwards and Hepburn, the rest of their roster gives me little concern. Similar to us, they are not a deep team and rely heavily on 2 guys to win them games.

Our ability to win this game is going to come down to one player....Steven Ashworth.

Louisville is a poor 3 point shooting defense. They give up a lot of open looks. Ashworth and our other shooters have to find the bottom of the net. This is a game where Ashworth will have the chance to shoot 10 threes.

He needs to make them.

Agree about Waterman shooting the 3 -- he had some good games this year, but streaky like you said. I kind of hinted at this in my comment, but with Waterman we might be able to do something similar to what we did with Dixon where Green covered him. They like to shoot the 3, but don't look like they put 5 guys on the floor at a time who can consistently shoot it either

I like the odds of Ashworth shooting well in the tourney - no back to back games helps him, I think. But a terrible 3 PT shooting game always has a good chance for us to lose

Agreed. They have 2 guys in their 7 man rotation who don't shoot 3s, Scott and Traore, and another (Rooths) who is capable of making 1 or 2 but plays low minutes and is a freshman. One of those guys will always have to be on the floor and Kalk is capable of guarding all 3 of them. That makes me feel better.

Feels like a game that will come down to 3 point shooting. And I think we're long overdue for an absolute heater from the perimeter.

[Angry Dan]

Does Louisville pursue mid range shots?

That can be a challenge if they do. Can someone look that up?

[SeattleJay]

Louisville is ranked 10th in today’s AP poll. Seems just a bit odd that they are an 8 seed in the NCAAT.

I guess Grant Gibbs lives on in Bubba’s head. Bubba must have Irish Alzheimer’s.

[JacobPadilla]

Does Louisville pursue mid range shots?

That can be a challenge if they do. Can someone look that up?

Louisville is 27-75 on 2-point jumpers, most of them inside 17 feet. So the answer to your question is "no."

Hepburn is 17-40, Edwards is 7-17 and the rest are 3-18.

Those two are capable of hitting mid-range shots, but they typically don't shoot many of them. Chucky's the one they really have to contain with the ball in his hands.

[LJay]

Louisville is ranked 10th in today’s AP poll. Seems just a bit odd that they are an 8 seed in the NCAAT.

I guess Grant Gibbs lives on in Bubba’s head. Bubba must have Irish Alzheimer’s.

Generally, the #10 team in the nation is playing Akron or Lipscomb in the first round. This draw is unreal.

[Tdjay114]

I’m guessing you mean Huskies. We don’t want the huskers seed number. You know there’s a difference, right? Or, are you just trying to find out if anybody bothers to actually read what you write?

Just curious, do you write prescriptions?

Good ol Jaybird. As optimistic and kind to others here just as he is on the baseball board.