Chicagojayfan wrote:drbluejay wrote:vivid_dude wrote:My opinion is that even with Sallis (longshot), CU would be nowhere near national champion contenders. Stranger things have happened, but as mentioned, Kentucky’s 2020-2021 recruiting class was better than the Jays incoming 2021-2022 class. They are struggling and that program is used to the one-and-done culture. Next year’s Bluejay squad would be wildly reliant on first year players, not a recipe for a deep tournament run.
If this all plays out as we are hypothesizing, I would be so happy to be wrong about this.
I agree and may I add the best thing about freshmen is they are Sophomores the next year.
This is a pretty unique year for everyone. I think Kentucky's problem is in large part due to the lack of practice time and game minutes for the kids to learn to gel together. Cal's been able to do that pretty much every other year, and the quality of this talent is always exceptional, but they need minutes to grow quickly and didn't get them this year.... it was a bad year to be depending on Freshman to play a big part this year.
We've had better fortunes with Freshman playing the past few years.
Kalkbrenner's great this year (even more impressive because big men have a tough time adjusting)
Two years ago, Marcus played 28 minutes a game and started the second half after Jefferson got hurt
Three years ago, Ballock got 21 minutes and Alexander got 17 a game
Mitchell will be in the mix at PG, but he'll need work to hold onto the starting job. Some examples:
his overall TS%/eFG% for the year is .528/.472 - - but in conference it is just: .440/.372
overall, his Assist % is 17.8% overall / Turnover% is 21.4% -- Marcus is at 24.7% / 14% for that
How good can Mitchell be with another year? We don't know yet, but his shooting and assist/TOV numbers aren't what we want to be a starting PG right now and that isn't a slam on him, it's just pointing out reality. He's a really good player for us with his ability to add pressure defense to the court, but to go beyond that role, he needs to improve shooting and assist/TOVs, IMO
There are a couple really good points in here that require some context when we think about next year:
The lack of a non-conference season for most programs has hampered the ability of some freshman to see the floor and get their feet wet against lower end competition. Next years freshman will at least get the "normal progression" for their development. Ive been impressed by Kalkbrenner, but he's also had the security blanket of a Christian that has (for the most part) avoided foul trouble that plagued him early on. He's also surrounded by one of our most experienced and talented teams in the last few years. He doesn't have to make things happen on his own...set some picks, get some rebounds, block some shots and get a few dunks. He's more than that, but this is an ideal situation for his Freshman year development.
The other point was made that Mitch and TyShon both played key role player minutes on the '17 - '18 team which had a backcourt of Mintz at the point, with Kyhri and Marcus as the safety nets along with Hegner playing a big role as stabilizer. Unless I'm totally mistaken, they weren't out there by themselves wheeling and dealing without the big brothers there to take the pressure off of them. As a reminder TyShon only averaged 5.5 ppg and he's in the G-League now. Mitch averaged ~ 7ppg on his 21 min. Between the two of them the combined for 6 starts...that's it.
My general point is (and I'm super excited about this freshman class) slotting freshman into starting roles and expecting to get high end performances out of them on a consistent basis is unique, not the norm. You're way better off sprinkling them in so they can slowly develop their shine. We won't have that luxury next year and a couple of them will need to be meaningful contributors on a level that exceeds Mitch and TyShon for us to be successful.
I know this is in someone else's post, but the comment was made about Tolliver in relation to Shereef. If I'm not mistaken, Tolliver was told in his end of season eval that he had to elevate his game to be a meaningful contributor. I think the same will be said about Shereef. Greg will say something like, "you're not Marcus, but you need to be more efficient in taking what the defense gives you which means more jump shot work." He occasionally plays a little out of control, but he's getting better. I can't imagine he won't be the game 1 starter, but like happened with Marcus we should hope that one of the freshmen earns more minutes as the year goes on.
I will be very surprised if a talented grad transfer shooting guard doesn't walk in the door this summer to take some of the pressure off this talented group of youngsters.
Wouldn't it be awesome if Mintz used the Covid year and came back home for his senior night?
